Assaulting a planet - What determines Success and how is a Fail determined?

We have a member who attempted an assault on a planet containing the following:

Planet Civ - Mankind
Invasion Civ - Syntis

Mankind equivalent defense force: 19,500
Syntis equivalent attack force (after orbital defense @ 75%) 47,625

Attack force advantage % (if I calc’d this right) 144.23%

My question is “how” is a fail determined? By “chance” definition:

From the wiki: (Also I thought there was one “very high”)
“Your approximate odds of success will be listed as well but as a generic “Low” “Moderate” or “High” is all that is currently shown.” @joe

I strongly suspect that if you are at your max number of allowed planets for a syntis, you can still launch an invasion but it will fail if you can’t get a free slot in time : I had that happen to me.

But there is something wrong with the numbers you gave : a human homeworld typically have 15k soldiers and 300k pop adds another 15k militia. If the autobuilder was left on it would be above 300k now. So this low number of militia only has one explanation : low morale.

He attacked with 127k troops, right? I would not have attacked below a 2vs1 troop ratio after the gun, his was 1,44vs1. I had some failures attacking colonies (no gun) with surviving troops of HW assault with lower than 2vs1 ratio…

However he will need less than 127k to take this HW afterall. Just tell him to be a bit more patient, and to check it everyday with a scout :wink:

1 Like

What do you mean “free slot in time”? And how does it apply to an invasion?

I would agree that is typical, however the numbers given to me were the ones I posted, included both the trained military and the home guard. It wasn’t MY planetary assault, so I have to go by the person’s information provided.

You may be right here, I advised he try again with more troops, more should increase the chance of success, but none are 100% success even at a High Success rate. At least that what we were told when they last adjusted the planetary assault process, hence my question.

Don’t know what you mean by the last sentence, I’ll allow him to deal with it on his 2nd try.

If you’re at planet cap you can’t capture another planet.

My take on this, and this is all just speculation, but it comes down to odds. If after everything the troops are evenly matched you have a 50% chance of success. If you have 2:1 troops then it’s a 66% chance. 4:1 is an 80% chance. I know in A3 I lost an invasion using roughly 4:1, so there’s always a chance of failure.

Personally, I haven’t done enough invasions to even come close to working out what the actual odds are. Perhaps if we get enough people to provide invasion stats we can work out if my presumption is correct.

I am only looking for one answer and that is from @joe, the developers “know” how the in game success of an invasion is determined. The rest of us are guessing.

Well said. Our perennial problem is that we never get to hear what is the “WAI” of any new or redesigned process. Forcing us to guess and estimate. Were this live that would be reasonable; but while in a testing (Pre Beta) state its counter productive.

That said our tiny DEV crew haven’t the staff time to keep us up to speed on all matters AND develop the game I imagine.

I would actually hope the exact odds are pretty impossible to work out from our side of the game. I would not want players to be totally sure as that builds a bit of suspense even if you are throwing overwhelming troops at things.

Conversely, I have started throwing deliberately small amounts of troops at worlds now and again just to see if the “Very Low” chance of success actually means what it says or if its really “No chance but we are not telling you this!”

Some guidelines via @Joe would be handy though if only so we can write accurate New player guides or to be sure there is no loophole at the other end of the scale.

Currently it seems to be:
“Very Low” ==> “Low” ==> “Moderate” ==> “High” ==> “Very High”
From my observations “Moderate” is roughly even odds after ODS & Racial adjustments High comes in roughly at 1.5 advantage and Very High at 3x Advantage or more. But thats my speculation if somebody has better data I’d love to see it too!

Assaulting a homeworld takes 13 hours, that’s enought time to evacuate the pop from another planet and get back a free planet slot. Don’t forget to account for pop growth like I did once, screwing the timer, planet assault finished with 45/45 planets, “invasion failed” (30k syntis vs 15k human militia no gun so 3vs1 ratio), sniff sniff I smell something wrong :wink:

Make him check the pop’s current morale and it’s evolution. If morale is headed to zero, the planet will have the rebellion modifier at some point.

And then…

:smiley: :smiley: :smiley:

For data :
Lost assault, parameters :
Invader : syntis, 123 978 killed by gun, so 165 304 attackers. 41 326 landed.
Defender : human, 13 885 militia (100% morale), 15 000 soldiers in barracks.

41 326x1.5 = 61 989 attacker strenght vs 28 885, ratio was 2.14 Vs 1.

Defender had around 300 soldiers remaining at the end of battle.

Another example of WTF and how it hurts for lack of feedback in the failure results news.

I just sent 100K humans to their doom vs. peoples realm army of around 4500 (x2.2), peoples realm homeguard of 200 and humankind (subjegated) homeguard of about 14,500. No ODS,

So is the calc 4700 x 2.2 = 10,340 plus humankind homeguard = 24,900 vs 100,000.

The invasion was given a HIGH chance of success, but pffft.

Any chance someone dropped off a load of troops to boost defense?

This is why we need either much more detailed feedback about land battles or, better yet, some sort of land battle replay similar to the space combat replay. Doesn’t have to be too fancy but it would maybe help us understand what happened.

1 Like

@WarMongers more likely the military base producing x2.2 strength troops kept adding to the defenders numbers over the 9hrs before the invasion began. I tried to play it cute with the player ‘giving’ me the colony and not dismantling the suped up military bases (so I would get them?). It won’t work, when I take it over the military base function will reflect my tech.

Nothing cute required. Have the player ‘stand down’ the defenses, and you can take it with a colonizer. Won’t change the tech issue either way.

To make matters worse, I sent in additional troops 12hrs later to test the possibility of attackers reinforcements. This was before I read the wiki section on Assault Preparation

Preparation


“All troops in an invasion attempt currently have to be delivered in one go, which means from a single fleet.”

That might’ve been that but my assault troops were allowed in, and reinforced my invasion(?). I don’t know, but the timer reset to 9.5 hours. Subssequently, a little more research into rules turned up on another rules page, and I apologize for not making a copy of the second rules page, but I swear it said that both sides could reinforce, and the timer would be adjusted somewhat unless the additions were tiny. I’d like to know what tiny is as an invasion progresses and numbers change before reinforcements. Also the timer seemed to exactly restart, so is that the way it’s supposed to work?

Huh. I wonder if it actually reinforced your first invasion or if your first invasion is now canceled (with the troops vanishing into the ether) and the second invasion has taken its place. You probably won’t even be able to know. Have to tell @joe where this is occurring and what numbers you used and he can probably look it up and see what’s going on.

Incidentally, I wonder if low invasion odds work the same way: just like you can fail a “very high”, I wonder if you can also win a “low”. Last night I won 2 “Moderate” invasions. Kinda testing the “Low” one now on a highly built up planet they keep reinforcing. I figure I’ll just keep dropping troops on it with low odds and see if it eventually wins. (Really I’m thinking it will wear them down over time but maybe there’s also a chance the dice rolls in my favor and I win one of these attempts.)

From my current experience.

If you attack with greater odds of 3:1 and Very High chance to win. You win.

Anything less, you run the risk of a prolonged battle and a loss.

Hope this helps.

Anything beyond that would be wild speculation upon my part. So take with a bucket of salt. I’ve had several ‘High’ chances of success, only to fail. My odds were below 3:1. So random chance, seems to be a die roll of some kind. My best guess: 50% chance of victory / defeat.

1 Like