Assaulting a planet - What determines Success and how is a Fail determined?

We have a member who attempted an assault on a planet containing the following:

Planet Civ - Mankind
Invasion Civ - Syntis

Mankind equivalent defense force: 19,500
Syntis equivalent attack force (after orbital defense @ 75%) 47,625

Attack force advantage % (if I calc’d this right) 144.23%

My question is “how” is a fail determined? By “chance” definition:

From the wiki: (Also I thought there was one “very high”)
“Your approximate odds of success will be listed as well but as a generic “Low” “Moderate” or “High” is all that is currently shown.” @joe

I strongly suspect that if you are at your max number of allowed planets for a syntis, you can still launch an invasion but it will fail if you can’t get a free slot in time : I had that happen to me.

But there is something wrong with the numbers you gave : a human homeworld typically have 15k soldiers and 300k pop adds another 15k militia. If the autobuilder was left on it would be above 300k now. So this low number of militia only has one explanation : low morale.

He attacked with 127k troops, right? I would not have attacked below a 2vs1 troop ratio after the gun, his was 1,44vs1. I had some failures attacking colonies (no gun) with surviving troops of HW assault with lower than 2vs1 ratio…

However he will need less than 127k to take this HW afterall. Just tell him to be a bit more patient, and to check it everyday with a scout :wink:

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What do you mean “free slot in time”? And how does it apply to an invasion?

I would agree that is typical, however the numbers given to me were the ones I posted, included both the trained military and the home guard. It wasn’t MY planetary assault, so I have to go by the person’s information provided.

You may be right here, I advised he try again with more troops, more should increase the chance of success, but none are 100% success even at a High Success rate. At least that what we were told when they last adjusted the planetary assault process, hence my question.

Don’t know what you mean by the last sentence, I’ll allow him to deal with it on his 2nd try.

If you’re at planet cap you can’t capture another planet.

My take on this, and this is all just speculation, but it comes down to odds. If after everything the troops are evenly matched you have a 50% chance of success. If you have 2:1 troops then it’s a 66% chance. 4:1 is an 80% chance. I know in A3 I lost an invasion using roughly 4:1, so there’s always a chance of failure.

Personally, I haven’t done enough invasions to even come close to working out what the actual odds are. Perhaps if we get enough people to provide invasion stats we can work out if my presumption is correct.

I am only looking for one answer and that is from @joe, the developers “know” how the in game success of an invasion is determined. The rest of us are guessing.

Well said. Our perennial problem is that we never get to hear what is the “WAI” of any new or redesigned process. Forcing us to guess and estimate. Were this live that would be reasonable; but while in a testing (Pre Beta) state its counter productive.

That said our tiny DEV crew haven’t the staff time to keep us up to speed on all matters AND develop the game I imagine.

I would actually hope the exact odds are pretty impossible to work out from our side of the game. I would not want players to be totally sure as that builds a bit of suspense even if you are throwing overwhelming troops at things.

Conversely, I have started throwing deliberately small amounts of troops at worlds now and again just to see if the “Very Low” chance of success actually means what it says or if its really “No chance but we are not telling you this!”

Some guidelines via @Joe would be handy though if only so we can write accurate New player guides or to be sure there is no loophole at the other end of the scale.

Currently it seems to be:
“Very Low” ==> “Low” ==> “Moderate” ==> “High” ==> “Very High”
From my observations “Moderate” is roughly even odds after ODS & Racial adjustments High comes in roughly at 1.5 advantage and Very High at 3x Advantage or more. But thats my speculation if somebody has better data I’d love to see it too!

Assaulting a homeworld takes 13 hours, that’s enought time to evacuate the pop from another planet and get back a free planet slot. Don’t forget to account for pop growth like I did once, screwing the timer, planet assault finished with 45/45 planets, “invasion failed” (30k syntis vs 15k human militia no gun so 3vs1 ratio), sniff sniff I smell something wrong :wink:

Make him check the pop’s current morale and it’s evolution. If morale is headed to zero, the planet will have the rebellion modifier at some point.

And then…

:smiley: :smiley: :smiley:

For data :
Lost assault, parameters :
Invader : syntis, 123 978 killed by gun, so 165 304 attackers. 41 326 landed.
Defender : human, 13 885 militia (100% morale), 15 000 soldiers in barracks.

41 326x1.5 = 61 989 attacker strenght vs 28 885, ratio was 2.14 Vs 1.

Defender had around 300 soldiers remaining at the end of battle.